SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位——汇率市场波动传染与波动聚类的实时甄别

随着人民币国际化进程的逐步推进,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位引人瞩目。本文基于非线性MSBIARCH模型,实时甄别人民币市场与美元市场、英镑市场、日元市场、欧元市场之间的波动传染关系,以及波动传染作用下汇率市场的波动聚类态势,进而识别SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位,旨在为及时防范并规避人民币市场的波动风险提供参考。研究发现,汇率市场经由“经济基本面”“市场情绪”以及“市场预期”对外发挥波动传染作用,人民币市场与美元市场之间存在双向波动传染关系,与英镑市场、欧元市场以及日元市场之间存在单向波动传染关系。不同汇率市场之间的波动传染关系表现出时间区制转移特征,汇率市场的波动聚类态势也呈现时变特征。汇率市场发挥波动传染作用的时间与汇率市场呈现波动聚类态势的时间相匹配,均集中在极端经济事件期、不规则事件期以及政策颁布事件期。国际汇率市场的波动传染作用导致了人民币市场的波动聚类态势,而人民币市场的波动传染作用仅强化了国际汇率市场的波动聚类态势,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化程度有待进一步提高。     

Women’s Roles on U.S. Fortune 500 Boards: Director Expertise and Committee Memberships

This study examines the presence and roles of female directors of U.S. Fortune 500 firms, focusing on committee assignments and director background. Prior work from almost two decades ago concludes that there is a systematic bias against females in assignment to top board committees. Examining a recent data set with a logistic regression model that controls for director and firm characteristics, director resource-dependence roles and interaction between director gender and director characteristics, we find that female directors are less likely than male directors to sit on executive committees and more likely than male directors to sit on public affairs committees. There is little if any evidence of systematic gender bias in director assignment to other board committees. We find some evidence that boards evaluate resource dependence differently for women than men. Craig A. Peterson Western Michigan University, Grand Rapios, MI 49503, USA Craig A. Peterson is associate professor of finance at Western Michigan University, Grand Rapids Regional Center. In addition to corporate governance, his research interests include investment management and corporate finance. James Philpot is assistant professor of finance and general business at Missouri State University. His research interests include corporate governance, financial planning and financial education.     

开放经济下的产业安全问题探析

本文认为,随着经济全球化进程的不断深化,开放经济、引进外资已经成为发展中国家促进本国经济发展的基本国策。但是如果不加限制地扩大外资的规模也会产生负面影响,即出现产业控制倾向,进而引发产业安全问题,这是事关国家经济安全的重大问题。对产业安全问题的研究,无论在现实经济运行还是在理论研究中,都具有非常重要的意义。随着国家经济结构的调整和产业升级的进程,产业安全的内涵和外延也将会有所拓展,金融安全、能源安全、网络安全、幼稚产业保护、经济结构、产业结构调整等都将成为产业安全研究所应关注的问题。     

The Euro Illusion in Consumers’ Price Estimation: An Italian–Irish Comparison in the Third Year of the Euro

The euro illusion is a transient phenomenon that consists of currency-related asymmetries in the intuitive judgment of product prices made by consumers. The results of a cross-country study in the third year after the introduction of the euro show a strong price estimation asymmetry in a country with an extreme exchange rate (Italy) and a weaker effect in a country in which the nominal values of the new and the old currency are much closer (Ireland). These results rule out proposed explanations of the euro illusion in price estimation that assume the sole influence of plausible anchors (reference prices stored in memory within the plausible price range), supporting instead accounts also endorsing the role of implausible anchors (reference prices outside the plausible price range). Beyond contributing to our theoretical understanding of the euro illusion, this research starts to unveil the interplay between structural factors (i.e., the currency exchange rate) and psychological mechanisms that produce long-lasting difficulties for consumers after a monetary changeover.

The combined effects of dependence and relationalism on the use of influence in marketing distribution systems

This study uses data from the automotive replacement tire industry to test the proposition that dependence and relationship structure interact to determine frequency of influence-strategy use in distribution systems. The findings support the expectation that dependence is positively associated with recommendations, information exchanges, promises, requests, legal pleas, and threats. However, increases in dealer dependence increase the use of requests, legal pleas, and threats only in systems characterized by trivial levels of relationalism.The authors would like to express their gratitude to John Burnett, Robert Dwyer, Jule Gassenheimer, and Allen Wilhite for their helpful comments on this project.     

外贸依存度、相互依存度、经济开放度的比较分析

外贸依存度的不断提高并不必然意味着经济对外依赖程度的增强。一国外贸依存度、一国经济与世界经济的相互依存度以及一国经济对外依赖程度,是既相互联系又相互区别的一组经济范畴,可以分别用一组指标体系来描述它们。     

石油贸易、石油安全与我国的对策

石油对我国经济和国家安全至关重要。自从1993年我国成为石油净进口国以来,我国石油对外依存度逐年上升。自2003年后,国际石油价格爆涨,我国石油安全比以往任何时候都更危险。同时,我国石油贸易还存在越贵越买的问题。本文分析了我国石油安全形势,认为我国石油安全已经处于危险状态,在此基础上,进一步提出了提高我国石油安全和改善石油贸易的建议。     

Brand Loyalty Versus Store Loyalty: Consumers’ Role in Determining Dependence Structure of Supplier–Retailer Dyads

Purpose: This article aims to integrate consumers into a channel dependence framework and explores the influence of consumers’ brand loyalty and store loyalty on the dependence structure within the supplier–retailer relationship. It also examines effects of the dependence structure on perceived conflict.

Methodology/approach: The authors test the proposed triadic relationship model among department store, supplier, and consumer by collecting matched data from both retailers and consumers in a Chinese retailing channel of sports and leisure apparel. Polynomial regression in conjunction with a response surface analysis (RSA) approach is used to test the hypotheses.

Findings: The results indicate that consumers’ brand loyalty positively affects retailer’s dependence on supplier, while consumers’ store loyalty positively affects supplier’s dependence on retailer. In addition, the retailer’s dependence is higher when consumers’ brand loyalty is higher than store loyalty; the supplier’s dependence is higher when consumers’ store loyalty is higher than brand loyalty; and the retailer’s dependence increases with the increase of both consumers’ brand and store loyalty when consumers’ brand and store loyalty are equal. Moreover, supplier’s dependence has a negative linear effect on retailer’s perceived conflict, whereas retailer’s dependence has an inverted U-shape effect on perceived conflict. A retailer would perceive more conflict when the retailer is relatively more dependent on the supplier; but the symmetrical interdependence has no significant effect on retailer perceived conflict.

Research implications: Researchers are encouraged to explore channel behaviors from a network perspective. Consumers, in particular, should be included in research frameworks related to channel dependence and behaviors. Suggestions for further research on the effects of dependence on the conflict are also proposed.

Originality/value/contribution: This study goes beyond the dyadic paradigm by integrating consumers into the framework of the channel dependence structure. It develops and tests a mechanism of consumers’ brand and store loyalty influencing dependence structure within a supplier–retailer dyad. It also enriches the literature of channel conflict by exploring the effects of retailer and supplier unilateral dependence on retailer perceived conflict with RSA methods.

Practical implications: The article provides several insightful implications for managers in understanding and managing interdependence structure in business-to-business marketing, especially in supplier–retailer relationships.     

生产性服务业外资企业投资分布演化——基于江苏省的实证研究

随着全球生产制造活动向我国的大规模转移,近年来服务业外国直接投资也表现出了快速增长的势头。本文以制造业外国直接投资较为集中的江苏省为研究对象,重点从集聚的"路径依赖"效果和产业关联作用两个角度考察了生产性服务业外资企业的投资分布状况及其空间演化。结果表明,短期内,路径依赖效果和产业关联作用都产生了显著影响,但长期影响效果还不是很明显。     

中国水生蔬菜出口市场集中度和依赖度分析

[目的]水生蔬菜作为我国区域性特色明显的优势农产品,出口创汇能力强。以莲藕、芋头和荸荠为主要研究对象,分析其出口规模、产品结构和市场分布,可全面把握中国水生蔬菜的出口市场形势,有助于防范出口市场风险,以便更好地推进中国水生蔬菜出口市场的进一步优化。[方法]文章通过测算市场集中率和依赖度系数,对2012—2021年中国水生蔬菜的出口市场集中度与依赖度进行分析。[结果]中国水生蔬菜出口市场集中度高,由高到低依次为芋头、莲藕和荸荠;出口依赖性强,其中莲藕对马来西亚、日本、美国的市场依赖性强;芋头对日本、美国的市场依赖性强;荸荠对马来西亚、新加坡和越南的市场依赖性强。[结论]基于研究结果和发现,提出拓展新兴市场、提升质量标准、延长产业链条等建议,以降低水生蔬菜出口风险、提升国际竞争力,推动中国水生蔬菜更好地发展。